中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 ›› 2010, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (1): 49-50.

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

三带喙库蚊发生量与气象因子相关性初步分析

杨维芳1,孙俊1,徐燕1,褚宏亮1,刘大鹏1,张爱军1,徐庆2,郑一平2   

  1. 1 江苏省疾病预防控制中心消毒与媒介生物防制科(南京 210009); 2 南京市疾病预防控制中心
  • 收稿日期:2009-07-12 出版日期:2010-03-01 发布日期:2010-03-01
  • 作者简介:杨维芳(1976-),女,主管技师,主要从事病媒生物防制工作。
  • 基金资助:

    江苏省疾病预防控制中心青年科研基金(JSQZ200504)

A preliminary study on the relationship between occurrence of Culex tritaeniorhynchus and meteorological factors 

YANG Wei-Fang, SUN Jun, XU Yan, CHU Hong-Liang, LIU Da-Peng, ZHANG Ai-Jun, XU Qiang, ZHENG Yi-Ping   

  1. 1 Jiangsu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu Province, China; 2 Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Received:2009-07-12 Online:2010-03-01 Published:2010-03-01
  • Supported by:

    Supported by the Youth Research Fund of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Jiangsu Province (No. JSQZ200504)

摘要:

目的 了解三带喙库蚊发生量与气象因子的相关性。方法 采用光催化灯诱集蚊虫;以南京市郊区牲畜棚2006年8月至2007年12月调查的三带喙库蚊密度(Y1)和雌性三带喙库蚊密度(Y2)为因变量,以同期的气象因子,平均气温(X1)、 最高气温(X2)、 最低气温(X3)、 降雨量(X4)、 平均气压(X5)、 平均相对湿度(X6)、 平均风速(X7)和日照时数(X8)为自变量, 应用SPSS 16.0软件进行多元逐步回归分析。结果 南京市郊区牲畜棚蚊虫调查中三带喙库蚊占90%以上, 雌蚊占95%以上, 高密度期 (>60只/h) 在6-10月。X3与三带喙库蚊密度变化存在显著的线性相关, 但回归不显著; 多数气象因子与三带喙库蚊密度存在显著的非线性相关; 获得较优的回归方程: Y1=10∧[18.645 Lg(X1+1)-21.403 Lg(X2+1)-0.930 X7+0.104 X8+2.470]-1,Y2= 10∧[19.051 Lg (X1+1)-21.994 Lg (X2+1)-0.945 X7+0.106 X8+8.675]-1,R2>0.8。结论 通过气象资料,可初步预测同期三带喙库蚊的发生量;该方法可扩展应用于其他病媒生物及其相关性疾病的预测。

关键词: 气象因子, 三带喙库蚊, 逐步回归, 相关性

Abstract:

Objective To determine the correlation between the occurrence of Culex tritaeniorhynchus and meteorological factors.  Methods Photocatalytic light traps were used to collect mosquitoes in Nanjing suburbs from August in 2006 to December in 2007. Multivariant stepwise regression was conducted using SPSS 16.0 with mosquito density (Y1), female mosquito density (Y2) as the dependent variables and synchronous meteorological factors, including mean temperature (X1), maximum temperature (X2), minimum temperature (X3), precipitation (X4), mean air pressure (X5), mean relative humidity (X6), mean wind velocity (X7) and sunshine hours (X8), as the independent variables.  Results Cx. tritaeniorhynchus accounted for over 90% in Nanjing suburbs, and female mosquitoes 95%. High density (>60 individuals per hour) was observed in the period from June to October. Significant linear correlation was present between X3 and the changing trend in mosquito densities, despite insignificant regression link. Most meterological factors were significantly nonlinear correlated with the density of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. Favorable  results  were  obtained  via  the  following  regression  equations: Y1=10∧[18.645 Lg(X1+1)-21.403 Lg(X2+1)-0.930 X7+0.104 X8+2.470]-1,Y2=10∧[19.051 Lg (X1+1)-21.994 Lg (X2+1)-0.945 X7+0.106 X8+8.675]-1,R2>0.8.  Conclusion The occurrence of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus could be forecasted based on the concurrent meteorological factors. This prediction method could be applied to other vectors and relevant diseases.

Key words: Meteorological factors, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, Stepwise regression, Correlation

中图分类号: