基于Knox模型分析2019年中缅边境地区景洪市登革热时空聚集性特征

doi:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2024.01.010

中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 ›› 2024, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 56-62.DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2024.01.010

基于Knox模型分析2019年中缅边境地区景洪市登革热时空聚集性特征

唐烨榕^1,2, 周红宁², 马文军³, 肖建鹏⁴, 赵建国⁴, 张倩⁵, 李菁华^1,6

1. 中山大学公共卫生学院, 广东广州 510080;
2. 云南省虫媒传染病防控关键技术创新团队, 云南省虫媒传染病防控研究重点实验室, 云南省热带传染病国际联合实验室, 云南省寄生虫病防治所, 云南普洱 665000;
3. 暨南大学, 广东广州 510632;
4. 广东省公共卫生研究院, 广东广州 511400;
5. 广东药科大学, 广东广州 510006;
6. 中山大学全球卫生研究中心, 广东广州 510080

收稿日期:2023-07-14 出版日期:2024-02-20 发布日期:2024-03-05
通讯作者: 李菁华,E-mail:lijinghua3@mail.sysu.edu.cn
作者简介:唐烨榕，女，彝族，在读硕士，主管医师，主要从事寄生虫病和虫媒传染病预防控制工作，E-mail：tangyerong123@163.com
基金资助:
云南省重点研发计划项目（202103AQ100001）；云南省重大科技专项（2017ZF007）；国家自然科学基金（U1602223）

Spatial-temporal clustering characteristics of dengue fever based on Knox model analysis in the China-Myanmar border area， Jinghong， China， 2019

TANG Ye-rong^1,2, ZHOU Hong-ning², MA Wen-jun³, XIAO Jian-peng⁴, ZHAO Jian-guo⁴, ZHANG Qian⁵, LI Jing-hua^1,6

1. School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China;
2. Yunnan Innovative Team of Key Techniques for Vector-borne Disease Control and Prevention, Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory of Vector-borne Diseases Control and Research, Yunan International Joint Laboratory of Tropical Infectious Diseases, Yunnan Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Pu'er, Yunnan 665000, China;
3. Ji'nan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510632, China;
4. Guangdong Provincial Institution of Public Health, Guangzhou, Guangdong 511400, China;
5. Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510006, China;
6. Global Health Research Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China

Received:2023-07-14 Online:2024-02-20 Published:2024-03-05
Supported by:
Yunnan Province Key Research and Development Plan (No. 202103AQ100001); Major Science and Technology Project of Yunnan Province (No. 2017ZF007); National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. U1602223)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析中缅边境地区登革热流行特征，探讨不同时空尺度下登革热时空聚集性特点。方法收集中缅边境地区云南省景洪市2019年登革热病例数据，采用Knox模型对登革热时空聚集性进行分析。结果初步确定景洪市登革热传播平均时间距离为23.49 d，平均空间距离为5.54 km。其中，时间间隔在1 d时，空间距离在0.40～0.50 km内，发病风险处于最高水平［相对危险度（RR）≈2.00］；空间距离在>0.50～1.00 km内，发病风险处于较高水平（RR>1.60），空间距离在>1.00～2.00 km内，发病风险处于中等水平（RR≥1.40）；空间距离在15.00 km时仍RR>1.00。在不同特征人群（性别、年龄、职业）中，登革热时空传播规律具有异质性，长时间短距离接触人群时空聚集强度最强。从职业方面来看，大尺度下（0～1.00 km）工人-工人病例对子最强，小尺度下（0～0.10 km）农民-农民病例对子最强。结论景洪市登革热传播风险随时间和空间距离增加而快速下降，且在不同尺度不同特征人群（性别、年龄、职业）下时空聚集具有明显差异。

关键词: 登革热, Knox模型, 时空聚集性, 中缅边境地区

Abstract: Objective To describe the epidemiological characteristics of dengue fever in the China-Myanmar border area, and to explore the spatial-temporal clustering characteristics of dengue fever at different spatial-temporal scales. Methods The data on dengue fever cases were collected in the China-Myanmar border area, Jinghong, China in 2019, and a spatial-temporal clustering analysis of dengue fever was performed using a Knox model. Results In this study, the average time interval and average spatial distance of dengue fever transmission in Jinghong were 23.49 d and 5.54 km, respectively. When the time interval was 1 day, the risk of dengue fever was highest (RR≈2.00) at a spatial distance of 0.40-0.50 km, relatively high (RR>1.60) at >0.50-1.00 km, and moderate (RR≥1.40) at 1.00-2.00 km; and the RR was still >1.00 at a distance of 15.00 km. Among populations of different characteristics (sex, age, and occupation), the spatial-temporal transmission pattern of dengue fever was heterogeneous, and the strength of spatiotemporal clustering was strongest in people with long-time and short-distance contact. For occupations, worker-worker case pairs had the highest strength at a large scale (0-1.00 km), and farmer-farmer case pairs had the highest strength at a small scale (0-0.10 km). Conclusion The risk of dengue fever transmission in Jinghong decreases rapidly with an increasing time interval and spatial distance, and spatial-temporal clustering is markedly heterogeneous at different scales and in populations of different characteristics (sex, age, and occupation).

Key words: Dengue fever, Knox model, Spatial-temporal clustering, China-Myanmar border area

中图分类号:

唐烨榕, 周红宁, 马文军, 肖建鹏, 赵建国, 张倩, 李菁华. 基于Knox模型分析2019年中缅边境地区景洪市登革热时空聚集性特征[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2024, 35(1): 56-62.

TANG Ye-rong, ZHOU Hong-ning, MA Wen-jun, XIAO Jian-peng, ZHAO Jian-guo, ZHANG Qian, LI Jing-hua. Spatial-temporal clustering characteristics of dengue fever based on Knox model analysis in the China-Myanmar border area， Jinghong， China， 2019[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2024, 35(1): 56-62.

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基于Knox模型分析2019年中缅边境地区景洪市登革热时空聚集性特征

Spatial-temporal clustering characteristics of dengue fever based on Knox model analysis in the China-Myanmar border area， Jinghong， China， 2019

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