关键词: 媒介生物, 蚊虫监测, 气象因素, 分布滞后非线性模型

Abstract: Objective To analyze the lagged effects of meteorological factors on mosquito density in the urban areas of Ji’nan, China, so as to provide a basis for further scientific prevention and control of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne infectious diseases.Methods We collected the mosquito data monitored with BG-traps and the concurrent meteorological data in the urban areas of Ji’nan in 2021 to construct a distributed lag nonlinear model to study the lagged effects of air temperature, humidity, air pressure, and precipitation on the mosquito density.Results A total of 31 018 mosquitoes were captured, including Culex pipiens pallens (22 436/31 018, 72.33%), Aedes albopictus (8 570/31 018, 27.63%), and Armigeres subalbatus (12/31 018, 0.04%). When the air temperature was 23.64 ℃, the effect on mosquito density was maximum at a lag of 2 d (relative risk [RR]=1.021, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.002-1.058). When the relative humidity was 98.00%, mosquito density was highest at a lag of 11 d (RR=1.232, 95%CI: 1.002-1.514). When the air pressure was 984.99 hPa, the mosquito density was highest at a lag of around 17 d (RR=1.376, 95%CI: 1.205-1.559). When the daily precipitation was 21.25 mm, the effect on mosquito density peaked at a lag of around 8 d (RR=1.352, 95%CI: 1.133-1.590).Conclusions Air temperature, humidity, precipitation, and air pressure have non-linear and lagged effects on mosquito density. The peak of mosquito density occurs in hot and rainy summer since high temperature and humidity can increase mosquito density. Relevant departments should take early intervention measures according to meteorological cond itions to effectively reduce the risk of mosquito-borne diseases.

Key words: Disease vector, Mosquito monitoring, Meteorological factor, Distributed lag non-linear model