淋巴丝虫入侵我国风险评估体系的建立及初步应用

doi:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2023.02.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的构建淋巴丝虫入侵我国风险评估体系，为评估我国淋巴丝虫入侵风险及后续防控对策的建立提供科学依据。方法基于气候因子、人口密度和海拔数据，从世界生物多样性信息交换平台上下载淋巴丝虫媒介蚊虫的分布数据，利用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）预估未来不同气候情景下蚊类在中国的潜在分布范围。应用文献研究与专家咨询法，确定评估的指标与赋值标准，构建淋巴丝虫入侵我国风险评估体系，进一步对淋巴丝虫入侵我国的风险等级进行评估。结果通过文献研究与两轮专家咨询，建立淋巴丝虫入侵风险评估体系，共确定3个一级指标、16个二级指标。输入风险方面设6个指标，传播风险方面设6个指标，后果风险方面设4个指标。根据赋值标准，风险值分别为0～4、0～4和0～2分，综合风险值后，0～3分为低风险，4～6分为中风险，7～8分为高风险，9～10分为极高风险。Kendall和谐系数分别为0.713和0.825，通过一致性检验。其传播媒介的适生性预测结果显示，中华按蚊、致倦库蚊、须喙按蚊等在中国的适生性范围广泛，并有扩大趋势。经评估分析，班氏吴策线虫、马来布鲁线虫和帝汶布鲁线虫入侵我国的风险等级分别为中风险、中风险和低风险。结论首次构建了淋巴丝虫入侵风险评估体系，为我国淋巴丝虫病消除后开展淋巴丝虫入侵风险评估和加强重点风险因素的防控提供了科学依据。

关键词: 淋巴丝虫, 入侵, 风险评估, 江苏

Abstract: Objective To establish a risk assessment system for lymphatic filaria invasion in China, and to offer scientific evidence for the risk assessment and prevention and control of lymphatic filaria invasion in China. Methods Based on data on climate factors, population density, altitude, and the distribution of filarial vector mosquitoes downloaded from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, a MaxEnt model was used to project the potential distribution of vector mosquitoes in China under different future climate scenarios. Through literature review and expert consultation, assessment indicators and assignment criteria were determined to construct a risk assessment system for evaluating the risk level of lymphatic filaria invasion in China. Results Through literature review and two rounds of expert consultation, three primary indicators and 16 secondary indicators were included in the lymphatic filaria invasion risk assessment system. There were six indicators for import risk (scored 0-4), six indicators for transmission risk (scored 0-4), and four indicators for consequence risk (scored 0-2). A pooled risk score of 0-3 was defined as low risk, 4-6 as medium risk, 7-8 as high risk, and 9-10 as extremely high risk. The Kendall’s coefficients of concordance for the first and second rounds of expert consultation were 0.713 and 0.825, respectively, indicating a good level of agreement. According to suitable habitat prediction, its vectors Anopheles sinensis, Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus, and An. barbirostris had broad distributions with increasing trends in China. The risk levels of Wuchereria bancrofti, Brugia malayi, and B. timori invasions in China were medium, medium, and low, respectively. Conclusions A lymphatic filaria invasion risk assessment system is established for the first time, which provides a basis for post-elimination risk assessment of lymphatic filaria invasion and control of key risk factors.

Key words: Lymphatic filaria, Invasion, Risk assessment, Jiangsu province

中图分类号:

茅范贞, 张莹舒, 杨友桂, 丁昕, 戴洋. 淋巴丝虫入侵我国风险评估体系的建立及初步应用[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2023, 34(2): 176-181.

MAO Fan-zhen, ZHANG Ying-shu, YANG You-gui, DING Xin, DAI Yang. Construction and preliminary application of a risk assessment system for lymphatic filaria invasion in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2023, 34(2): 176-181.

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