气候变化背景下按蚊伊丽莎白菌全球和中国适生区分布预估研究

doi:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2023.02.005

中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 ›› 2023, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 165-175.DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2023.02.005

• 重要外来入侵媒介和病原生物 • 上一篇下一篇

气候变化背景下按蚊伊丽莎白菌全球和中国适生区分布预估研究

韦晓慧^1,2, 王晓旭^2,3, 冀好强^2,3, 梁莹², 刘起勇^1,2

1. 南京医科大学公共卫生学院, 江苏南京 210000;
2. 中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所媒介生物控制室, 传染病预防控制国家重点实验室, 北京 102206;
3. 山东大学公共卫生学院, 山东济南 250100

收稿日期:2023-02-02 出版日期:2023-04-20 发布日期:2023-04-26
通讯作者: 刘起勇,E-mail：liuqiyong@icdc.cn
作者简介:韦晓慧,女,在读硕士,主要从事媒介生物传染病和媒介生物控制学研究,E-mail：xiaohuiwei001@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划（2020YFC1200101）

Prediction of suitable habitat distribution of Elizabethkingia anophelis in the world and China under climate change

WEI Xiao-hui^1,2, WANG Xiao-xu^2,3, JI Hao-qiang^2,3, LIANG Ying², LIU Qi-yong^1,2

1. School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210000, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Department of Vector Biology and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China;
3. School of Public Health, Shandong University, Ji'nan, Shandong 250100, China

Received:2023-02-02 Online:2023-04-20 Published:2023-04-26
Supported by:
National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2020YFC1200101)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的明确按蚊伊丽莎白菌当前和未来适生区分布范围，为预防该菌暴发，有效防控该菌在中国的扩散和蔓延提供参考。方法收集按蚊伊丽莎白菌地理分布信息21份，结合56个气候因子，利用最大熵模型预估按蚊伊丽莎白菌全球和中国适生区，使用R 4.2.2软件调整模型参数，构建受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）并使用其曲线下面积（AUC）评估模型准确度，最终使用ArcGIS 10.5软件对结果进行可视化。结果年降水量（bio12，27.0%）和1月最低温（tmin01，22.2%）对按蚊伊丽莎白菌的分布贡献率最大，当前气候条件下，按蚊伊丽莎白菌的高适生区主要分布在美国东南部、南美洲北部、欧洲西部、非洲中部、亚洲东南部部分地区，在中国的高适生区主要分布在秦岭-淮河线以南湿润地区。未来气候条件下，不同强度的气候变化对其在全球及中国的适生区大体呈现促进作用，尤其是高辐射强迫下，其适生区面积增加较为显著。结论全球及中国在当前及未来气候条件下均存在较大面积的按蚊伊丽莎白菌适生区，且未来气候条件的变化对其适生区有促进作用。政府应采取措施控制温室气体排放，以降低对按蚊伊丽莎白菌适生区的促进作用，存在其高适生区的省份，应加强监测、风险评估和应对。

关键词: 按蚊伊丽莎白菌, 适生区分布, 最大熵模型, 气候变化

Abstract: Objective To determine the current and future suitable areas of Elizabethkingia anophelis, and to provide a reference for preventing its outbreak and spread in China. Methods With 21 pieces of information on the geographical distribution of E. anophelis and data on 56 climatic factors, a MaxEnt model was used to estimate the suitable areas of E. anophelis in the world and China. R 4.2.2 software was used to adjust model parameters, and construct the receiver operating characteristic curve. The area under the curve was calculated to evaluate the accuracy of the model. The results were visualized using ArcGIS 10.5 software. Results Annual precipitation (bio12, 27.0%) and the minimum temperature in January (tmin01, 22.2%) contributed most to the distribution of E. anophelis. Under current climatic conditions, the highly suitable areas for E. anophelis were mainly distributed in the southeastern United States, northern South America, western Europe, central Africa, and parts of southeastern Asia; in China, they were mainly distributed in the wet regions south of the Qinling-Huaihe Line. Under future climatic conditions, climate changes of varying intensities generally promoted the suitable areas of E. anophelis in the world and China, especially under high radiative forcing. Conclusions There are large suitable areas for E. anophelis in the world and China under both current and future climate conditions, which are expected to be promoted with the change of climate in the future. Authorities should take measures to control greenhouse gas emissions to limit the increase of E. anophelis’ suitable areas. Provinces with its highly suitable areas should strengthen surveillance, risk assessment and response.

Key words: Elizabethkingia anophelis, Suitable habitat distribution, MaxEnt, Climate change

中图分类号:

R378
R183.5

韦晓慧, 王晓旭, 冀好强, 梁莹, 刘起勇. 气候变化背景下按蚊伊丽莎白菌全球和中国适生区分布预估研究[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2023, 34(2): 165-175.

WEI Xiao-hui, WANG Xiao-xu, JI Hao-qiang, LIANG Ying, LIU Qi-yong. Prediction of suitable habitat distribution of Elizabethkingia anophelis in the world and China under climate change[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2023, 34(2): 165-175.

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气候变化背景下按蚊伊丽莎白菌全球和中国适生区分布预估研究

Prediction of suitable habitat distribution of Elizabethkingia anophelis in the world and China under climate change

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