须喙按蚊入侵中国对未来气候变化的响应及风险评估

doi:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2023.02.003

中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 ›› 2023, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 145-153.DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2023.02.003

• 重要外来入侵媒介和病原生物 • 上一篇下一篇

须喙按蚊入侵中国对未来气候变化的响应及风险评估

李超^1,2, 杨海波¹, 梁莹², 王国政¹, 李阳¹, 王彬², 李泓运², 王君², 刘起勇²

1. 临沂市人民医院互联网医院管理办公室/公共卫生管理部, 山东临沂 276000;
2. 中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所媒介生物控制室, 传染病预防控制国家重点实验室, 北京 102206

收稿日期:2023-02-03 出版日期:2023-04-20 发布日期:2023-04-26
通讯作者: 刘起勇,E-mail：liuqiyong@icdc.cn
作者简介:李超,男,硕士,研究实习员,主要从事卫生管理及媒介传染病研究,E-mail：lichaoicdc@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划（2020YFC1200101）；山东省医药卫生科技发展计划项目（202103061021）；临沂市重点研发计划（医学类）项目（2022YX0112）

Risk assessment of Anopheles barbirostris invasion responding to future climate change in China

LI Chao^1,2, YANG Hai-bo¹, LIANG Ying², WANG Guo-zheng¹, LI Yang¹, WANG Bin², LI Hong-yun², WANG Jun², LIU Qi-yong²

1. Internet Hospital Management Office/Department of Public Health Management, Linyi People's Hospital, Linyi, Shandong 276000, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, Department of Vector Biology and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China

Received:2023-02-03 Online:2023-04-20 Published:2023-04-26
Supported by:
National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2020YFC1200101);Shandong Provincial Medicine and Health Technology Development Program (No. 202103061021);Linyi Key R&D Program (Medical) Project (No. 2022YX0112)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的评估未来气候变化情景下须喙按蚊入侵中国的风险，为监测预警提供依据。方法使用最大熵模型预测须喙按蚊近期在全球的潜在分布状况和预估未来在中国的潜在分布区变化趋势。基于环境因子的贡献率，分析影响须喙按蚊分布的主要环境因子；构建病媒生物风险评估指标体系用于计算入侵物种的综合风险值。结果共筛选出须喙按蚊有效分布点99个；9月降雨量在影响须喙按蚊潜在适生区分布中占有主导作用；模型训练遗漏率与理论遗漏率大体一致，受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）值为0.988；当前气候情景下，须喙按蚊在中国的潜在适生区主要集中在广东、广西、海南省（自治区）以及四川盆地东部等；须喙按蚊在未来2081－2100年共享社会经济路径（SSP）585气候情景下中国的潜在适生区范围最广（207.51×10⁴ km²），未来各气候情景下适生区面积呈增加趋势；通过风险评估指标体系，计算得出须喙按蚊的综合风险值为0.57，属于中等入侵风险物种。结论须喙按蚊在中国属于中等入侵风险物种，未来应根据其适生区分布情况完善蚊媒监测系统，制定科学的防控策略。

关键词: 最大熵模型, 气候变化, 潜在适生区, 入侵风险评估, 须喙按蚊

Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of Anopheles barbirostris invading China under future climate change scenarios, and to provide a basis for monitoring and early warning. Methods The maximum entropy model was used to predict the recent global potential distribution and project the future potential distribution of An. barbirostris in China. The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of An. barbirostris were analyzed based on the contribution rate of environmental factors. The vector risk assessment index system was established to calculate the comprehensive risk value of invasive species. Results A total of 99 effective distribution points of An. barbirostris were identified. The rainfall in September played a leading role in affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas of An. barbirostris. The omission rate of model training was roughly the same as the theoretical omission rate, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.988. Under the current climate scenario, the potential suitable areas of An. barbirostris in China were mainly in Guangdong province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and Hainan province as well as the eastern Sichuan Basin. In 2081-2100, China has the largest potential suitable area (207.51×10⁴ km²) under the shared socioeconomic pathway 585 climate scenario, and the area of suitable area will show an increasing trend under various climate scenarios. Through the risk assessment index system, it was calculated that the comprehensive risk value of An. barbirostris was 0.57, so An. barbirostris belonged to the medium-risk invasive species. Conclusions An. barbirostris is a species with a medium invasion risk. In the future, the mosquito vector surveillance system should be improved according to the distribution of its suitable areas, and scientific prevention and control strategies should be formulated.

Key words: MaxEnt, Climate change, Potential suitable area, Invasion risk assessment, Anopheles barbirostris

中图分类号:

R384.1

李超, 杨海波, 梁莹, 王国政, 李阳, 王彬, 李泓运, 王君, 刘起勇. 须喙按蚊入侵中国对未来气候变化的响应及风险评估[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2023, 34(2): 145-153.

LI Chao, YANG Hai-bo, LIANG Ying, WANG Guo-zheng, LI Yang, WANG Bin, LI Hong-yun, WANG Jun, LIU Qi-yong. Risk assessment of Anopheles barbirostris invasion responding to future climate change in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2023, 34(2): 145-153.

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须喙按蚊入侵中国对未来气候变化的响应及风险评估

Risk assessment of Anopheles barbirostris invasion responding to future climate change in China

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