新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控措施对中国肾综合征出血热流行的影响研究

doi:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2023.01.011

中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 ›› 2023, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (1): 58-64.DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2023.01.011

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控措施对中国肾综合征出血热流行的影响研究

常楠^1,2, 周若冰², 马德龙^2,3, 张璐², 韦晓慧^1,2, 王君², 刘起勇^1,2

1. 南京医科大学公共卫生学院, 江苏南京 210000;
2. 中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所媒介生物控制室, 传染病预防控制国家重点实验室, 北京 102206;
3. 山东第一医科大学, 山东济南 250000

收稿日期:2022-08-24 出版日期:2023-02-20 发布日期:2023-02-16
通讯作者: 刘起勇,E-mail:liuqiyong@icdc.cn
作者简介:常楠,女,在读博士,从事流行病与卫生统计学研究,E-mail:changnan@njmu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（32090023）

Influence of COVID-19 intervention on the epidemic of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China

Nan CHANG^1,2, Ruo-bing ZHOU², De-long MA^2,3, Lu ZHANG², Xiao-hui WEI^1,2, Jun WANG², Qi-yong LIU^1,2

1. School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210000, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Department of Vector Biology and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China;
3. Shandong First Medical University, Ji'nan, Shandong 250000, China

Received:2022-08-24 Online:2023-02-20 Published:2023-02-16
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(32090023)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析2006－2021年我国肾综合征出血热（HFRS）的流行特征，探究新型冠状病毒肺炎（新冠肺炎）疫情流行期间我国采取的相关防疫政策是否对HFRS的流行情况产生影响，为后续制定相关政策提供科学依据。方法应用描述性流行病学方法对我国2006－2021年HFRS流行特征进行统计分析，选取2006－2019年的HFRS病例数据建立自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型，预测2020－2021年发病数，并对预测值与实际观测值进行比较。结果 2006－2021年间我国的HFRS病例数相对稳定，死亡病例显著减少。1年中有2个发病高峰，分别出现在5－6月和11月，具有明显的季节性。东北地区发病数降低，但在全国范围内流行范围扩大，且部分地区仍有暴发隐患。男性病例数明显高于女性，男性高发年龄段为35～49岁，女性为45～59岁，不同性别的发病年龄构成比差异有统计学意义（χ²=2 802.807，P<0.001）。农民仍是主要患病人群，占总病例数的半数以上。通过R 4.0.4软件拟合2006－2019年的HFRS病例数据建立季节性ARIMA模型为（2，0，2）（1，1，0）₁₂，模型拟合效果好。2020－2021年HFRS病例实际观测值与预测值接近，在预测值95％置信区间内。结论我国HFRS总体趋势较为平稳，仍是我国的重要公共卫生问题之一，需加强监测，实施更为精准的防控措施。2020－2021年间我国的新冠肺炎疫情防控措施对HFRS的流行情况未产生显著影响。

关键词: 肾综合征出血热, 新型冠状病毒肺炎, 自回归积分移动平均模型, 流行特征

Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China from 2006 to 2021, to investigate the influence of non-pharmaceutical intervention against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on HFRS prevalence, and to provide a scientific basis for the subsequent formulation of relevant policies. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were utilized to statistically analyze the epidemiological characteristics of HFRS in China from 2006 to 2021. The data of HFRS cases from 2006 to 2019 were used to establish an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the number of HFRS cases in 2020-2021, and the predicted values were compared with the actual observed values. Results The number of HFRS cases in China was relatively stable in 2006-2021, and the number of deaths were significantly reduced. HFRS had obvious seasonality, with two peaks of incidence in a year, i.e., May-June and November. The number of cases in northeast China decreased, but the affected areas in the whole country expanded, and some areas were still at risk of outbreak. The number of male cases was significantly higher than that of female cases. The peak age group of onset was 35-49 years for males and 45-59 years for females, and there was a significant difference in the age composition between males and females (χ²=2 802.807, P<0.001). Farmers were the main affected population, accounting for more than half of the total cases. The seasonal ARIMA model was established by fitting the data of HFRS cases from 2006 to 2019 with R 4.0.4 software, which was (2,0,2)(1,1,0)₁₂ and was well fitted. The actual observed value of HFRS cases in 2020-2021 was close to the predicted value, within its 95% confidence interval. Conclusion HFRS is an important public health problem in China and the overall trend of its prevalence is relatively stable. It is necessary to strengthen the surveillance and implement more accurate prevention and control measures. The measures for COVID-19 prevention and control in China have no significant impact on the prevalence of HFRS during 2020-2021.

Key words: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, COVID-19, Autoregressive integrated moving average, Epidemic characteristics

中图分类号:

R183.3

常楠, 周若冰, 马德龙, 张璐, 韦晓慧, 王君, 刘起勇. 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控措施对中国肾综合征出血热流行的影响研究[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2023, 34(1): 58-64.

Nan CHANG, Ruo-bing ZHOU, De-long MA, Lu ZHANG, Xiao-hui WEI, Jun WANG, Qi-yong LIU. Influence of COVID-19 intervention on the epidemic of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2023, 34(1): 58-64.

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新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控措施对中国肾综合征出血热流行的影响研究

Influence of COVID-19 intervention on the epidemic of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China

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