利用层次分析法和德尔菲法构建疾控机构鼠疫应急能力评价指标体系

doi:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2022.04.023

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的建立疾病预防控制机构（疾控机构）鼠疫应急能力评估体系，为有效控制鼠疫流行和应急处置提供理论依据。方法整理鼠疫防控应急相关资料，在文献循证评价、专家咨询和小组讨论的基础上，利用2轮德尔菲法确立疾控机构鼠疫应急能力评价指标。从同时参与第1轮和第2轮咨询的专家中，选择2名专家对一、二级指标进行两两比较，利用层次分析法确定一、二级指标的权重，建立鼠疫应急能力评价指标体系。利用非参数Kendall协调系数W检验检测专家意见的一致性。结果共有14名专家参加了第1轮专家咨询，12名专家参加了第2轮专家咨询，问卷回收率分别为93.33%、85.71%。专家对指标的熟悉程度为0.94，专家权威指数为0.88，专家对该研究的指标比较熟悉，研究结果具有权威性。第1轮和第2轮专家咨询一级指标重要性、二级指标重要性和可获得性Kendall协调系数W检验均有统计学意义（均P<0.05），专家意见协调性较好。通过2轮德尔菲专家问卷调查，最终建立了由11个一级指标和57个二级指标组成的疾控机构鼠疫应急能力评价体系。结论该研究构建的鼠疫应急评估体系符合实际情况，各项指标体系可信度高，应用该指标体系可有效评价疾控机构鼠疫应急能力。

关键词: 鼠疫, 应急能力, 层次分析法, 德尔菲法

Abstract: Objective To establish a plague emergency response capability evaluation system for disease control agencies, and to provide a theoretical basis for effective plague control and emergency response. Methods Documents and literatures on plague control and emergency response were collected. Evidence-based evaluation of the literature, expert consultation, and group discussion as well as two rounds of Delphi method were performed to establish the evaluation indices of plague emergency response capability of disease control agencies. Two experts who participated in both the first and second rounds of consultation were selected to conduct pairwise comparisons of the primary and secondary indices. Analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the weights of the primary and secondary indices, and to establish an evaluation index system for plague emergency response capability. The non-parametric Kendall's coefficient of concordance (W) was used to measure the consistency of expert opinions. Results A total of 14 experts participated in the first round of consultation and 12 experts participated in the second round of consultation. The questionnaire response rate was 93.33% and 85.71%, respectively. The expert familiarity index was 0.94 and the expert authority index was 0.88. Therefore, the experts were familiar with the indices and the results were authoritative. In the first and second rounds of expert consultation, the importance of primary and secondary indices and the availability of Kendall's W test were statistically significant (all P<0.05). Therefore, the coordination of expert opinions was good. Through two rounds of Delphi expert questionnaire surveys, an evaluation system of plague emergency response capability for disease control agencies was established, which composed of 11 primary indices and 57 secondary indices. Conclusion The plague emergency response capability evaluation system is in line with the actual situation, and the indices have high reliability. The system can be used to effectively evaluate the plague emergency response capability of disease control agencies.

Key words: Plague, Emergency response capability, Analytic hierarchy process, Delphi method

中图分类号:

闫东, 刘冠纯, 任兴宇, 候芝林, 兰晓宇, 康东梅, 杨顺林, 刘晓林, 张锐. 利用层次分析法和德尔菲法构建疾控机构鼠疫应急能力评价指标体系[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2022, 33(4): 568-572.

YAN Dong, LIU Guan-chun, REN Xing-yu, HOU Zhi-lin, LAN Xiao-yu, KANG Dong-mei, YANG Shun-lin, LIU Xiao-lin, ZHANG Rui. Construction of an evaluation index system for plague emergency response capability of disease control agencies using analytic hierarchy process and Delphi method[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2022, 33(4): 568-572.

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