关键词: 鼠疫, 风险评估体系

Abstract: Objective To establish a plague risk assessment system in Hebei province and surrounding areas, and to provide a scientific basis for effective prevention and control of plague. Methods The past data and research findings of plague prevention and control in Hebei province and surrounding areas were organized. The Delphi method was used to determine plague risk factors and their weight. A risk assessment index system was established. Non-parametric Kendall coordination coefficient W test was used for testing the consistency of expert opinions. Results A total of 17 experts participated in two rounds of consultation. The questionnaire recovery rates were 94.12% and 100%, respectively. A plague risk assessment system of Hebei province and surrounding areas, including 7 primary and 40 secondary indicators, was finally established after two rounds of Delphi expert questionnaire survey. The experts' familiarity with the indicators was scored as 0.888 9 with a standard deviation of 0.657 5. The expert authority index was 0.885 1. Experts were familiar with the indicators and presented an authoritative study. In the two rounds of expert consultation, the Kendall's coefficient of concordance test indicated significant necessity of the primary and secondary indicators and significant availability of the secondary indicators; expert opinions were well coordinated (all P<0.05). Conclusion The system established in this study meets the requirements of plague risk assessment in Hebei province and surrounding areas, which can provide technical support for prevention and control of plague.

Key words: Plague, Risk assessment system