关键词: 病媒生物, 人工小时法, 分布滞后非线性模型

Abstract: Objective To analyze the trend in the meteorological characteristics of Shanghai, China, and the pattern of changes in mosquito density (surveyed by the labor hour method) in Pudong New Area, Shanghai, and to explore the effect of meteorological factors on mosquito density in Pudong New Area. Methods The single-day meteorological data from March 2011 to November 2015 in Shanghai were collected; meanwhile, the mosquito surveillance data based on the labor hour method in Pudong New Area during the same period were collected. The distributed lag non-linear model was used to determine the effect of meteorological factors on mosquito density index. Results A significant non-linear relationship was found between single-day average temperature and mosquito density index. The number of lag days showed a U-shaped relationship with the effect intensity. The relative ratio value reached a maximum of 2.2 at 32℃. The lag effect achieved a peak within about 3 days, then gradually decreased, and gradually recovered after 10 days. The effect of humidity was similar to that of temperature. The result of wind velocity was contrary to that of temperature and humidity. Conclusion The temperature shows a maximum effect on mosquito density index after 3 lag days, and the humidity has no significant lag effect on mosquito density.

Key words: Vector, Labor hour method, Distributed lag non-linear model