关键词: 温度, 肾综合征出血热, 分布滞后非线性模型, 滞后时间

Abstract: Objective To investigate the hysteresis effect of temperature on the risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Dandong and Huludao, Liaoning province, China. Methods The incidence data of HFRS reported in Dandong and Huludao from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2017 and the meteorological data of the same period were collected. The distributed lag non-linear model was used to analyze the hysteresis effect of ambient temperature on the incidence of HFRS after controling the influence of long-term trend and. Results The high temperature effect on the incidence of HFRS in Huludao was present from the time of exposure to week 12 after exposure. However, it was present in Dandong from about week 8 to week 12 after exposure with a lag time of 8 weeks. The effect of low temperature on the incidence of HFRS in Huludao appeared immediately after exposure and disappeared at about week 10 after exposure. However, it also appeared appeared immediately in Dandong and lasted to week 12 after exposure. The high and low ambient temperatures both showed positive effect on the incidence of HFRS in the two cities. Conclusion Both high temperature and low temperature can increase the risk of HFRS in the two cities. The hysteresis effect of temperature on HFRS is different between the two cities.

Key words: Temperature, Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, Distributed lag nonlinear model, Lag time