气候因素对广东省登革热流行影响的非线性效应

doi:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2019.01.005

中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 ›› 2019, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 25-30.DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2019.01.005

气候因素对广东省登革热流行影响的非线性效应

侯祥¹, 刘可可², 刘小波², 常罡¹, 许磊², 刘起勇²

1 陕西省动物研究所, 陕西西安 710032;
2 中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所, 传染病预防控制国家重点实验室, 感染性疾病诊治协同创新中心, 世界卫生组织媒介生物监测与管理合作中心, 北京 102206

收稿日期:2018-08-29 出版日期:2019-02-20 发布日期:2019-02-20
通讯作者: 刘起勇,Email:liuqiyong@icdc.cn;许磊,Email:xulei@icdc.cn
作者简介:侯祥,男,硕士,主要从事鼠害防治的生态学、数理统计模型分析研究,Email:hx426108@163.com
基金资助:
中国检验检疫科学研究院科研协作项目（2016YFC1200803）；陕西省重点研发计划项目（2018NY-135）；陕西省科学院科技计划项目（2018K-04）

Nonlinear effects of climate factors on dengue epidemic in Guangdong province, China

HOU Xiang¹, LIU Ke-ke², LIU Xiao-bo², CHANG Gang¹, XU Lei², LIU Qi-yong²

1 Shaanxi Institute of Zoology, Xi'an 710032, Shaanxi Province, China;
2 State Key Laboratory of Infections Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, WHO Collaborating Centre for Vector Surveillance and Management

Received:2018-08-29 Online:2019-02-20 Published:2019-02-20
Supported by:
Supported by the Research Collaboration Project of Chinese Academy of Inspection and Quarantine (No. 2016YFC1200803), Shaanxi Key Research and Development Program (No.2018NY-135) and Major Science Project of Shaanxi Academy of Science (No. 2018K-04)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的分析广东省佛山、广州、汕头、深圳、珠海5个市的气候因素、蚊虫密度对登革热流行的影响效应。方法登革热病例数据来源于国家法定传染病报告系统，媒介伊蚊密度数据来源于登革热媒介伊蚊监测系统，并采用广义可加模型对2005－2015年登革热和伊蚊密度监测数据进行分析。结果发现登革热的流行存在显著的正向自我调节效应（F_1.96，10.84=6 588.650，P<0.01），蚊虫密度与登革热之间存在显著的非线性正效应（F_2.98，10.84=21.810，P<0.01），蚊虫密度显著影响登革热的流行。当月平均最高气温对登革热流行存在显著的非线性正效应（F_1.91，10.84=215.570，P<0.01），登革热的发生随着温度升高而升高。上月降雨天数对登革热发生存在显著的非线性效应（F_2.99，10.84=101.590，P<0.01），当降雨天数<15 d时，两者之间显现为正相关，登革热的发生随着降雨天数增加而升高，反之显现为负相关。结论温度和降雨对广东省登革热的流行风险有调节作用，它们主要通过改变蚊虫种群密度，影响种群变化，从而达到影响登革热的流行和暴发，总体而言登革热的发生随气候变化而明显上升。

关键词: 登革热, 非线性, 气候因素, 广义可加模型

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the effects of climate factors and mosquito density on dengue epidemic in Foshan, Guangzhou, Shantou, Shenzhen, and Zhuhai in Guangdong province, China. Methods Dengue surveillance data were obtained from the China National Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting System. Aedes density data were collected from the Dengue Vector Aedes Surveillance System. A generalized additive model was used to analyze dengue and Aedes density surveillance data from 2005 to 2015. Results The model results indicated that dengue fever showed a significant positive self-regulation effect (F_{1.96, 10.84}=6 588.650,P<0.01). Mosquito density was significantly positively associated with dengue incidence (F_{2.98, 10.84}=21.810,P<0.01). Mean maximum temperature of lag time 0 month showed a significantly positive nonlinear association with dengue incidence (F_{1.91, 10.84}=215.570,P<0.01). Days with precipitation of the previous month exhibited a significantly n-shape effect on dengue incidence (F_{2.99, 10.84}=101.590,P<0.01), which is positively associated with dengue incidence as days with precipitation was below 15 days, but negatively associated above the threshold. Conclusion Temperature and precipitation regulate the risk of dengue epidemic in Guangdong province. They affect the epidemic and outbreak of dengue fever mainly via changing mosquito population density and population dynamics. Overall, dengue incidence significantly increases with the changes in climate.

Key words: Dengue fever, Nonlinear, Climate factor, Generalized additive model

中图分类号:

R373.3⁺3

侯祥, 刘可可, 刘小波, 常罡, 许磊, 刘起勇. 气候因素对广东省登革热流行影响的非线性效应[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2019, 30(1): 25-30.

HOU Xiang, LIU Ke-ke, LIU Xiao-bo, CHANG Gang, XU Lei, LIU Qi-yong. Nonlinear effects of climate factors on dengue epidemic in Guangdong province, China[J]. Chines Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2019, 30(1): 25-30.

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气候因素对广东省登革热流行影响的非线性效应

Nonlinear effects of climate factors on dengue epidemic in Guangdong province, China

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