山东省干旱事件对人群传染病发病影响的研究

doi:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2017.06.006

中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 ›› 2017, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 538-542.DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2017.06.006

山东省干旱事件对人群传染病发病影响的研究

薛晓嘉¹, 李学文², 李晓梅¹, 丁国永¹, 刘起勇³

1 泰山医学院公共卫生学院, 山东泰安 271016;
2 山东大学公共卫生学院, 济南 250012;
3 中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所, 北京 102206

收稿日期:2017-08-17 出版日期:2017-12-20 发布日期:2017-12-20
通讯作者: 丁国永,Email:dgy153@126.com;李晓梅,Email:xmli@tsmc.edu.cn
作者简介:薛晓嘉,女,在读硕士,主要从事气象灾害流行病学工作,Email:542865106@qq.com
基金资助:
山东省自然科学基金联合专项（ZR2015HL100）；国家重大科学研究计划（2012CB955502）；山东省医药卫生科技发展计划（2016WS0605）；泰安市科技发展计划（2016NS1206）；泰山医学院高层次课题（2015GCC16，2016GCC05）

Study on effects of drought events on infectious diseases in Shandong province

XUE Xiao-jia¹, LI Xue-wen², LI Xiao-mei¹, DING Guo-yong¹, LIU Qi-yong³

1 School of Public Health, Taishan Medical University, Taian 271016, Shandong Province, China;
2 School of Public Health, Shandong University;
3 National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Received:2017-08-17 Online:2017-12-20 Published:2017-12-20
Supported by:
Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province for the Joint Specific Program(No. ZR2015HL100), National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No. 2012CB955502), Medicine and Health Science Technology Development Program of Shandong Province(No. 2016WS0605), Science and Technology Development Plan of Taian City (No. 2016NS1206), and High-level Research Topic of Taishan Medical University for the Cultivated Program(No. 2015GCC16, 2016GCC05)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的研究山东省干旱事件与人群传染病的关系，筛选干旱事件敏感性传染病。方法选取山东省济南、青岛、潍坊和泰安市辖区以及日照市莒县和滨州市惠民县作为研究现场，采用生态趋势研究识别干旱相关敏感性传染病。采用Wilcoxon秩和检验对暴露期和对照期及滞后期传染病的发病率进行粗筛，选择负二项回归模型、零膨胀负二项回归模型和零膨胀Poisson回归模型拟合干旱与粗筛传染病发病的关系。结果多因素回归模型结果显示，干旱导致阿米巴痢疾、风疹和流行性乙型脑炎（乙脑）发病风险增加，其OR值及其95% CI分别为2.457 （1.609～3.752）、2.206（1.436～3.388）和1.192（1.058～1.344），相应滞后期分别为3、0和1个月；而细菌性痢疾、手足口病、麻疹和恙虫病在干旱发生后其发病风险降低（OR < 1），相应滞后期分别为2、2、0和3个月。结论山东省干旱相关敏感性传染病谱为细菌性痢疾、阿米巴痢疾、手足口病、麻疹、风疹、乙脑和恙虫病。

关键词: 干旱, 传染病, 筛选, 生态学研究

Abstract: Objective To understand the relationship between infectious diseases and drought events and to screen the indicative infectious diseases associated with drought in Shandong province. Methods The drought-indicative infectious disease was identified by ecological trend study in Jinan, Qingdao, Weifang, Taian, Juxian, and Huimin county in Shandong province. The Wilcoxon rank sum test was used to compare the morbidity of infectious diseases between exposure and reference periods. Then, the negative binomial regression model, the zero-expansion negative binomial regression model and the zero-expansion Poisson regression model were applied to fit the relationship between the morbidity of infectious diseases and drought. Results Multivariate analysis regression models showed that the risk of amebic dysentery, measles and Japanese encephalitis (JE) were increased after the drought (OR=2.457, 95%CI:1.609-3.752; OR=2.206, 95%CI:1.436-3.388; OR=1.192, 95%CI:1.058-1.344), and the lagged periods were 3, 0, 1 months. However, the risk of bacillary dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, measles and tsutsugamushi disease declined after the drought (OR<1), and the lagged periods were 2, 2, 0, 3 months. Conclusion Drought-associated infectious diseases in Shandong province were bacterial dysentery, amoebic dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, measles, rubella, JE, and tsutsugamushi disease.

Key words: Drought, Infectious diseases, Screen, Ecological study

中图分类号:

薛晓嘉, 李学文, 李晓梅, 丁国永, 刘起勇. 山东省干旱事件对人群传染病发病影响的研究[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2017, 28(6): 538-542.

XUE Xiao-jia, LI Xue-wen, LI Xiao-mei, DING Guo-yong, LIU Qi-yong. Study on effects of drought events on infectious diseases in Shandong province[J]. Chines Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2017, 28(6): 538-542.

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山东省干旱事件对人群传染病发病影响的研究

Study on effects of drought events on infectious diseases in Shandong province

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