关键词: 肾综合征出血热, 相关分析, 气象因素

Abstract:

Objective The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and meteorological factors. Methods We collected HFRS epidemiological data and meteorological data from 2000 to 2014 in Anqiu city. Excel 2007 was used for summarizing data and descriptive analysis. SAS 9.2 was used for correlation analysis, multiple linear regression analysis. Results The HFRS incidence was positively associated with annual sunshine hours and the annual average wind speed. The HFRS incidence of this month was inversely associated with this month's temperature, precipitation, average pressure, average wind speed and last one and two month's temperature; but positively was associated with last two month's humidity, last month's sunshine hours and atmospheric pressure. The paper established a regression equation model for multi-analysis of relativities between weather factors and the reported incidence of HFRS. This month's sunlight(x2), last month's precipitation(x5), last two month's temperature (x8) and humidity(x9) as the independent variables, the HFRS incidence of this month as the dependent variables, the regression equation was established, y=0.019 1x2-0.014 2x5-0.239 0x8+0.061 5x9, R²=0.639. Conclusion The HFRS incidence is associated with meteorological factors which can be used to predict the incidence.

Key words: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, Correlation analysis, Meteorological factors