中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 ›› 2015, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (5): 464-466.DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.4692.2015.05.008

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

浙江省蚊虫密度的相关气象因素研究

王金娜, 凌锋, 郭颂, 侯娟, 龚震宇   

  1. 浙江省疾病预防控制中心传染病防制所病媒生物防制科, 杭州 310051
  • 收稿日期:2015-06-17 出版日期:2015-10-20 发布日期:2015-10-20
  • 通讯作者: 龚震宇, Email: zhygong@cdc.zj.cn
  • 作者简介:王金娜, 女, 硕士, 医师, 从事病媒生物防制研究, Email: jnwang@cdc.zj.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技重大专项课题(2012ZX10004219)

Study on the relevant meteorological factors influencing mosquito density in Zhejiang province

WANG Jin-na, LING Feng, GUO Song, HOU Juan, GONG Zhen-yu   

  1. Zhejiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, Zhejiang Province, China
  • Received:2015-06-17 Online:2015-10-20 Published:2015-10-20
  • Supported by:

    Supported by the Major National Science and Technology Projects of China (No. 2012ZX10004219)

摘要:

目的 探讨影响蚊虫密度的气象因素, 为蚊虫密度的预测提供理论依据。方法 收集2007年1月至2013年12月杭州、衢州、温州市的气象数据以及蚊虫密度监测数据。采用Pearson相关及逐步多元线性回归模型进行数据分析。结果 在杭州市, 平均水汽压(P=0.000, 95%CI:0.004~0.007)与蚊虫密度显著相关;在衢州市, 平均最低气温(P=0.000, 95%CI:0.027~0.055)、最大日降雨量(P=0.001, 95%CI:0.001~0.005)、极端最低本站气压(P=0.041, 95%CI:0.001~0.029)与蚊虫密度显著相关;在温州市, 平均本站气压(P=0.012, 95%CI:-0.029~-0.004)与蚊虫密度显著相关。杭州地区平均本站气压(P=0.000, 95%CI:-0.015~-0.007)、平均气温(P=0.000, 95%CI:-0.013~-0.004)对蚊虫密度的影响有滞后性;衢州地区平均本站气压(P=0.000, 95%CI:-0.079~-0.034)、日照百分率(P=0.017, 95%CI:-0.111~-0.012)、平均水汽压(P=0.017, 95%CI:-0.050~-0.005)对蚊虫密度的影响有滞后性。结论 平均水汽压、平均本站气压、平均最低气温、最大日降雨量、极端最低本站气压可能是影响蚊虫密度的气象因素。平均本站气压、平均气温、日照百分率以及平均水汽压等对蚊虫密度的影响有滞后性。

关键词: 气象因素, 蚊虫密度, 相关性, 逐步回归

Abstract:

Objective To explore the relevant meteorological factors influencing mosquito density, and to provide theoretical basis for the prediction of mosquito density. Methods The data of meteorological factors and mosquito density were collected from January 2007 to December 2013 in Hangzhou, Quzhou and Wenzhou city, Zhejiang province, respectively. Pearson correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis with stepwise were used to explore the influencing factors. Results The average vapor pressure (P=0.000, 95%CI: 0.004-0.007) is significantly associated with mosquito density in Hangzhou city; the average minimum temperature (P=0.000, 95%CI: 0.027-0.055), the maximum daily precipitation (P=0.001, 95%CI: 0.001-0.005) and the extreme minimum station barometric pressure (P=0.041, 95%CI: 0.001-0.029) are significantly associated with mosquito density in Quzhou city; the average station barometric pressure (P=0.012, 95%CI: -0.029- -0.004) is significantly associated with mosquito density in Wenzhou city. The average station barometric pressure (P=0.000, 95%CI:-0.015- -0.007) and the average temperature (P=0.000, 95%CI: -0.013-0.004) have a lagging effect on the mosquito density in Hangzhou city; the average station barometric pressure (P=0.000, 95%CI: -0.079- -0.034), percentage of sunshine (P=0.017, 95%CI:-0.111- -0.012) and the average vapor pressure (P=0.017, 95%CI: -0.050- -0.005) have a lagging effect on the mosquito density in Quzhou city. Conclusion The average vapor pressure, the average station barometric pressure, the average minimum temperature, the maximum daily precipitation and the extreme minimum station barometric pressure may be the main meteorological factors that affect mosquito density. The average station barometric pressure, the average temperature, percentage of sunshine, the average vapor pressure may have a lagging effect on the mosquito density.

Key words: Meteorological factors, Mosquito density, Correlation, Stepwise regression

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