关键词: 鼠疫, 监测, 流行病学, 分析

Abstract: Objective To provide a scientific basis for the control of plague among humans by studying 30 years’plague epizootic monitoring indices in Dingbian county of Shaanxi province, China. Methods The monitoring indices and plague epizootic were analyzed by descriptive epidemiology using SPSS.Results During the surveillance from 1983 to 2012, plague epizootic occurred three times in 1987-1988, 2000-2001, and 2006, respectively. It was found that rodent density, flea index, and flea infection rate increased at different levels before epidemic years. The rodent density peaked in 1986, 2000, and 2003,with peak values of 39.63, 16.28, and 21.01 rodents/hm², respectively. The flea index and flea infection rate showed similar trends, and all peaked in the three epidemic years of 1987, 2000, and 2006, with flea indices of 0.71, 0.72, and 1.20,respectively, and flea infection rates of 45.10%, 41.69%, and 43.06%, respectively. Flea infection rate was positively correlated with flea index, and rodent density was positively correlated with nest flea index (P＜0.01).Conclusion Rodent density, flea index, and flea infection rate are the main indices in the monitoring of plague epizootic. Rodent density ＞16 rodents/hm², flea index ＞0.70, and flea infection rate＞40% indicate high possibility of plague epidemic. Plague epizootic occurred irregularly in Shaanxi province, with a possible interval of 5-10 years. Although monitoring data in 2012 showed that the epidemic was in quiescent period, it should be noted that six years had passed since the last epidemic, and that the neighboring province had reported recent incidence of plague epizootic. Therefore, active surveillance of plague should be carried out effectively, and emergency response plan for plague epidemic should be developed and implemented.

Key words: Plague, Surveillance, Epidemiology, Analysis