关键词: 聚类分析, GM(1,1)模型, 发病率, 流行性乙型脑炎

Abstract: Objective To classify the incidence rates of Japanese encephalitis (JE) in all the provincial-level regions of China by hierarchical cluster analysis and predict the future incidence of JE nationwide, and to provide a theoretical basis for reducing the incidence of JE. Methods The data on the incidence rates of JE in all the provincial-level regions of China from 1992 to 2011 were collected. Q cluster analysis was applied to classify the incidence rates of JE in all the provincial-level regions of China. The GM (1, 1) model was used to predict the future incidence of JE nationwide. Results The Q cluster analysis showed that Guizhou, Chongqing, Yunnan, Henan, Sichuan, Anhui, and Shaanxi were the regions with high incidence of JE, and other regions, which had relatively low incidence of JE, were classified as a group. In China, the incidence of JE decreased in recent years, and the incidence of JE predicted by the GM (1, 1) model was approximately in accordance with the actual incidence. According to the prediction results by the GM (1, 1) model, the incidence rates of JE would be 0.24/10⁵, 0.22/10⁵, and 0.20/10⁵ from 2012 to 2014. Conclusion There will be a declining trend in the incidence of JE in China. Control measures should be enhanced in the regions with significantly higher incidence of JE.

Key words: Hierarchical cluster analysis, GM (1, 1) model, Incidence rate, Japanese encephalitis