关键词: 圆形分布, 流行性乙型脑炎, 发病时间和趋势

Abstract: Objective To analysis the onset time and incidence trend of Japanese encephalitis (JE) in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control measures of the disease. Methods Circle distribution was used to analyze the seasonality of the JE in the years 2004-2010. Incidence trend of JE was analyzed using trend test. Results In Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from 2004 to 2010, the JE showed apparently seasonality and periodicity. It was revealed that the incidence began to increase in May, the incidence peak was from June to July, the incidence began to decrease in August. The incidence peak day was obvious every year (P<0.01). There were significant differences on the incidence peak time during 7 years (F=23.20, P<0.01). The peak day was from June 19 to June 30. The peak stage was from May 16 to August 4. There was evident decline in incidence during 7 years (χ²=221.06, P<0.01). Conclusion The seasonal and periodical characteristics of the JE was very obvious in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in the seven years. The key points for decreasing morbidity of JE in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region must be further strengthening of routine immunization, and it is highly required that the more effective comprehensive control measures be strengthened.

Key words: Circular distribution, Japanese encephalitis, Seasonal characteristics and incidence trend