中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 ›› 2011, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (4): 359-360,365.

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

季节趋势模型在我国肾综合征出血热发病动态研究中的应用

郭海强, 丁海龙, 曲波, 孙高   

  1. 中国医科大学公共卫生学院,辽宁沈阳 110001
  • 收稿日期:2011-04-13 出版日期:2011-08-20 发布日期:2011-08-20
  • 通讯作者: 孙高,Email: gsun@mail.cmu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:郭海强(1971-),男,硕士,副教授,主要从事流行病学与医学统计学工作。Email: hqg1971@hotmail.com

Application of seasonal trend models in a dynamic study of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence

GUO Hai-qiang, DING Hai-long, QU Bo, SUN Gao   

  1. Department of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang 110001, Liaoning Province, China
  • Received:2011-04-13 Online:2011-08-20 Published:2011-08-20

摘要:

目的 分析全国2005-2009年肾综合征出血热(HFRS)报告病例数据,应用季节趋势模型预测2010年的发病例数。方法 应用SPSS 15.0和Excel 软件分析数据,并建立季节趋势模型。结果 全国HFRS报告病例数2005-2009年呈逐年下降趋势。应用该数据建立的季节趋势模型,方差分析结果显示回归方程有统计学意义(F=25.449,P<0.000),模型预测2010年该病的报告发病例数为4993例,其中1-4月预测发病数分别为533、361、452和497例,预测相对误差依次为5.82%、2.22%、10.18% 和13.08%,平均误差仅为7.82%。结论 季节趋势模型可用于拟合既具有长期趋势,又具有季节性特点的数据,并可利用模型进行短期预测。

关键词: 肾综合征出血热, 疫情, 季节趋势模型

Abstract:

Objective To predict the 2010 incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) based on a seasonal trend model with the reported data from 2005 to 2009 in China. Methods SPSS 15.0 and Excel were used for data analysis, and a seasonal trend model was designed. Results Since 2005, reported cases of HFRS have gradually declined. The regression equation for this data model was statistically significant (F=25.449, P<0.000). The model predicted 4933 reported cases in 2010, including 533, 361, 452, and 497 from January to April, respectively, with the relative errors of 5.82%, 2.22%, 10.18%, and 13.08%. The average error was only 7.82%. Conclusion The seasonal trend model can be used to fit epidemic data that describe a long-term trend and seasonal characteristics, and to predict the short-term dynamics.

Key words: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, Epidemic data, Seasonal trend model

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