Nonlinear effects of climate factors on dengue epidemic in Guangdong province, China

doi:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2019.01.005

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the effects of climate factors and mosquito density on dengue epidemic in Foshan, Guangzhou, Shantou, Shenzhen, and Zhuhai in Guangdong province, China. Methods Dengue surveillance data were obtained from the China National Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting System. Aedes density data were collected from the Dengue Vector Aedes Surveillance System. A generalized additive model was used to analyze dengue and Aedes density surveillance data from 2005 to 2015. Results The model results indicated that dengue fever showed a significant positive self-regulation effect (F_{1.96, 10.84}=6 588.650,P<0.01). Mosquito density was significantly positively associated with dengue incidence (F_{2.98, 10.84}=21.810,P<0.01). Mean maximum temperature of lag time 0 month showed a significantly positive nonlinear association with dengue incidence (F_{1.91, 10.84}=215.570,P<0.01). Days with precipitation of the previous month exhibited a significantly n-shape effect on dengue incidence (F_{2.99, 10.84}=101.590,P<0.01), which is positively associated with dengue incidence as days with precipitation was below 15 days, but negatively associated above the threshold. Conclusion Temperature and precipitation regulate the risk of dengue epidemic in Guangdong province. They affect the epidemic and outbreak of dengue fever mainly via changing mosquito population density and population dynamics. Overall, dengue incidence significantly increases with the changes in climate.

Key words: Dengue fever, Nonlinear, Climate factor, Generalized additive model

摘要：

目的分析广东省佛山、广州、汕头、深圳、珠海5个市的气候因素、蚊虫密度对登革热流行的影响效应。方法登革热病例数据来源于国家法定传染病报告系统，媒介伊蚊密度数据来源于登革热媒介伊蚊监测系统，并采用广义可加模型对2005－2015年登革热和伊蚊密度监测数据进行分析。结果发现登革热的流行存在显著的正向自我调节效应（F_1.96，10.84=6 588.650，P<0.01），蚊虫密度与登革热之间存在显著的非线性正效应（F_2.98，10.84=21.810，P<0.01），蚊虫密度显著影响登革热的流行。当月平均最高气温对登革热流行存在显著的非线性正效应（F_1.91，10.84=215.570，P<0.01），登革热的发生随着温度升高而升高。上月降雨天数对登革热发生存在显著的非线性效应（F_2.99，10.84=101.590，P<0.01），当降雨天数<15 d时，两者之间显现为正相关，登革热的发生随着降雨天数增加而升高，反之显现为负相关。结论温度和降雨对广东省登革热的流行风险有调节作用，它们主要通过改变蚊虫种群密度，影响种群变化，从而达到影响登革热的流行和暴发，总体而言登革热的发生随气候变化而明显上升。

关键词: 登革热, 非线性, 气候因素, 广义可加模型

CLC Number:

R373.3⁺3

HOU Xiang, LIU Ke-ke, LIU Xiao-bo, CHANG Gang, XU Lei, LIU Qi-yong. Nonlinear effects of climate factors on dengue epidemic in Guangdong province, China[J]. Chines Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2019, 30(1): 25-30.

侯祥, 刘可可, 刘小波, 常罡, 许磊, 刘起勇. 气候因素对广东省登革热流行影响的非线性效应[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2019, 30(1): 25-30.

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