Abstract: Objective To establish the risk assessment system of dengue fever in Wuhan city. Methods Firstly, the risk assessment indicator was constructed by literature review, and then the Delphi method was applied to optimize the risk assessment system and determine weight coefficient. Additionally, the risk assessment matrix was adopted to assess the risk level of dengue fever. Results The risk assessment indicator system consists of 14 indexes on the risk probability and 6 indexes on risk severity. The results of Delphi method consulting:the authority coefficients above 0.8 indicated that the results of consultation were authoritative. Harmonious coefficient on the risk probability and risk severity were 0.579 and 0.595 respectively(χ²=59.478, P < 0.05), and were of statistical significance, which indicated that the opinions from experts were harmonious. According to the percentage of total weighted score in the maximum score, the risk probability (69.26%) is likely to occur, the risk severity(49.70%) is moderate, and the risk level of dengue fever import into Wuhan city is high. Conclusion The assessment system can be used to assess the risk of dengue fever in Wuhan city. The risk level of dengue fever in Wuhan city is high and justified.

Key words: Dengue fever, Indicator system, Risk assessment, Delphi method

摘要： 目的 建立武汉市登革热传入风险评估体系，评估登革热传入的风险等级。方法 首先通过文献法，初步构建武汉市登革热传入风险评估指标体系；再通过德尔菲专家咨询法，优化指标体系并确定权重系数；利用风险矩阵法评估武汉市登革热传入风险等级。结果 该指标体系建立了14个登革热传入风险可能性影响因素指标和6个登革热危害严重程度影响因素指标。德尔菲法专家权威系数均> 0.8，咨询结果具有权威性；专家对登革热传入风险可能性及危害严重程度影响因素的意见协调系数分别为0.579和0.595（χ²=59.478，P < 0.05），说明专家意见协调性好。根据指标总加权评分占最大值的百分比确定发生风险的等级（69.26%）为很可能发生，风险严重程度（49.70%）为中等，武汉市登革热传入风险等级为高危险度。结论 建立的风险评估体系可用于武汉市登革热传入风险的评估；认为武汉市登革热传入风险等级为高危险度的结论符合实际。

关键词: 登革热, 指标体系, 风险评估, 德尔菲法