Abstract:

Objective To establish a risk assessment index system for dengue fever in Wenzhou, assess risk of public health, providing evidence for the prevention and control dengue fever. Methods Dengue fever was assessed by 12 specialists; the results were analyzed through analytic hierarchy process in 2014. Results The risk assessment index system for public health of dengue fever was established in Wenzhou. The system included 1 target layer, 4 criterion layers and 19 index layers. Emergency handling ability of CDC (0.151), adult mosquito density (0.110) and Bretean index (0.110) were high risk factors. Dengue virus antibody of serum and the periods from onset to the first visit were relatively low. Meanwhile, the evaluation of the dengue fever in Wenzhou city was in high risk level by this indicator system. Conclusion There were risks of local outbreak of dengue fever caused by import cases in Wenzhou city, it is important to strengthen risk assessment for public health of emerging infectious diseases and import infectious diseases include dengue.

Key words: Dengue fever, Risk assessment, Index system, Analytic hierarchy process

摘要：

目的 建立温州市登革热公共卫生风险评估指标体系，评估公共卫生风险，为制定登革热防控策略提供科学依据。方法 于2014年设计专家测评表，邀请12位专家进行评估，采用层次分析法进行分析。结果 研究构建包括1个目标层，4个准则层和19个指标层的温州市登革热公共卫生风险评估体系。经评估，组合权重系数较高的指标为疾病预防控制应急处置能力（0.151）、伊蚊成蚊密度（0.110）和布雷图指数（0.110），人体登革热病毒抗体水平和发病到就诊时间权重系数较低。评估结果显示温州市登革热公共卫生风险等级为高度风险。结论 温州市存在登革热输入并引起本地暴发流行的风险，应不断完善登革热等输入和新发传染性疾病风险评估体系，加强公共卫生风险评估，积极防范相关传染病危害。

关键词: 登革热, 风险评估, 指标体系, 层次分析法