Abstract: Objective To provide a scientific basis for the control of plague among humans by studying 30 years’plague epizootic monitoring indices in Dingbian county of Shaanxi province, China. Methods The monitoring indices and plague epizootic were analyzed by descriptive epidemiology using SPSS.Results During the surveillance from 1983 to 2012, plague epizootic occurred three times in 1987-1988, 2000-2001, and 2006, respectively. It was found that rodent density, flea index, and flea infection rate increased at different levels before epidemic years. The rodent density peaked in 1986, 2000, and 2003,with peak values of 39.63, 16.28, and 21.01 rodents/hm², respectively. The flea index and flea infection rate showed similar trends, and all peaked in the three epidemic years of 1987, 2000, and 2006, with flea indices of 0.71, 0.72, and 1.20,respectively, and flea infection rates of 45.10%, 41.69%, and 43.06%, respectively. Flea infection rate was positively correlated with flea index, and rodent density was positively correlated with nest flea index (P＜0.01).Conclusion Rodent density, flea index, and flea infection rate are the main indices in the monitoring of plague epizootic. Rodent density ＞16 rodents/hm², flea index ＞0.70, and flea infection rate＞40% indicate high possibility of plague epidemic. Plague epizootic occurred irregularly in Shaanxi province, with a possible interval of 5-10 years. Although monitoring data in 2012 showed that the epidemic was in quiescent period, it should be noted that six years had passed since the last epidemic, and that the neighboring province had reported recent incidence of plague epizootic. Therefore, active surveillance of plague should be carried out effectively, and emergency response plan for plague epidemic should be developed and implemented.

Key words: Plague, Surveillance, Epidemiology, Analysis

摘要： 目的 分析陕西省定边县鼠疫疫区30年动物鼠疫监测结果,为控制人、鼠间鼠疫发生提供依据。方法 运用SPSS软件、描述流行病学方法对监测指标与鼠间疫情进行分析。结果 1983－2012年共发生3起鼠间鼠疫流行,发生年分别为1987－1988、2000－2001及2006年,流行年份前几年鼠密度、鼠体染蚤率、蚤指数呈不同程度增高趋势,鼠密度在1986、2000、2003三个年份出现小高峰,分别为39.63、16.28和21.01只/hm²;染蚤率与蚤指数变化趋势一致,在1987、2000、2006三个疫情年份均出现高峰,染蚤率分别为45.10%、41.69%和43.06%,蚤指数分别为0.71、0.72和1.20。染蚤率与蚤指数、鼠密度与巢蚤指数呈正相关(P＜0.01)。结论 鼠密度、蚤指数、染蚤率是监测动物鼠疫流行的主要指标,鼠密度＞16只/hm²,鼠体蚤指数＞0.70,鼠体染蚤率＞40%,提示可能会有鼠疫流行;陕西省鼠疫动物病流行呈现不规则周期性,间隔5～10年可能出现大的动物病流行;2012年监测表明疫情处于静息期,但距上次疫情发生已有6年,结合临近省(自治区)疫情动态,应积极开展主动监测,加强突发疫情处置工作。

关键词: 鼠疫, 监测, 流行病学, 分析