ISSN 1003-8280 CN 10-1522/R 中国疾病预防控制中心 主办
Chines Journal of Vector Biology and Control
• muci • Previous Articles Next Articles
Wong Shou-qing; Shao Shou-kun; Xu Xiao-ping; et al
Online:
Published:
翁寿清1; 邵守坤1; 徐校平1; 周卫群1; 阮玉华2
Abstract: People infected with HFRS of high risk and people in high epidemic areas should be vaccinated with inactivated HFRS vaccine when based on surveillance of disease, future epidemic of HFRS could be evaluated and prevention efficacy of vaccine could be guided with datebase of confident morbidity forecasting. As forecasting of experiment proved well with Box-Jenkins model on morbidity of HFRS in Jiande County, its morbidity forecasting result was accurate and this model could apply to future morbidity forecasting. Box-Jenkins model was a rapid and accurate method for forecasting of HFRS epidemic and it could help to control HFRS epidemic.
摘要: 目的:建立肾综合征出血热(HFRS)Box-Jenkins模型。方法:用游程检验对发病序列进行随机性检验。结果:提示HFRS疫苗应在高危人群和高发地区人群中接种;用Box-Jenkins模型对建德市HFRS发病作实验预测研究,结果准确。结论:该模型适合于实际预测,不失为疾病预测中快速、准确的模型。
关键词: 肾综合征出血热, 疫苗, Box-Jenkins模型, 疾病预测
Wong Shou-qing; Shao Shou-kun; Xu Xiao-ping; et al. Study of Box-Jenkins Model on Morbidity of Hemorrhagic Feverwith Renal Syndrome in Jiande County[J]. Chines Journal of Vector Biology and Control.
翁寿清1; 邵守坤1; 徐校平1; 周卫群1; 阮玉华2. 肾综合征出血热Box-Jenkins模型研究[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志.
0 / / Recommend
Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX
URL: http://www.bmsw.net.cn/EN/
http://www.bmsw.net.cn/EN/Y1998/V9/I4/246